A recent analysis by maritime intelligence firm Windward reveals a significant shift in traffic patterns through the critical Strait of Hormuz. The waterway, vital for global energy supplies, is increasingly seeing a dominance of sanctioned and falsely flagged vessels, particularly utilizing an Iran’s IRGC-controlled corridor near Larak Island. This development coincides with a notable decline in Iraqi oil exports and a strategic reversion to normal navigation channels by Omani ships.

Alarming Rise in Sanctioned Transits

Windward’s data for April 1st paints a stark picture: 62% of transits involved sanctioned vessels. This includes a concerning six tankers operating under false flags, employing fraudulent registries from countries like Madagascar, Botswana, and Aruba. Three vessels even falsely broadcasted their use of Comoros flags. This surge in illicit activity saw transits climb for a third consecutive day, reaching 16 from 11 on March 31st, indicating that more nations are engaging in negotiations with Iran to facilitate ship passage.

The inbound traffic on April 1st was predominantly Iran-linked tankers, with seven tankers and two cargo vessels tracked via AIS. Outbound transits were also dominated by vessels carrying containerized goods and dry bulk commodities from Iran.

The Larak Island Corridor: A New Route for Shadow Fleets

Since approximately March 14th, Iran has imposed a ‘permission-based, selective blockade’ around Larak Island, effectively rerouting vessels through an IRGC-controlled corridor. This route circumvents the traditional international channel, with ships hugging Iran’s coastline within its territorial waters. All 16 vessels transiting on April 1st utilized this specific corridor, suggesting its primary use by Iran’s ‘inbound shadow tanker fleet’ preparing for further loadings.

Omani Vessels Opt for Traditional Routes

In a significant development, three Omani-controlled ships – two tankers and one liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier – exited the Strait of Hormuz on April 2nd, notably avoiding the IRGC-controlled corridor. Instead, they utilized the normal navigation channel, marking the first time vessels have been observed using this prior route since March 14th. These transits, including the first for an LNG carrier since the ongoing conflict began, underscore a potential divergence in regional maritime strategies.

The three ships, two Marshall Islands-flagged very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and a Panama-flagged LNG carrier, reportedly switched off their AIS shortly after commencing their transit, a common tactic for vessels seeking to obscure their movements.

Shifting Crude Flows and Plunging Iraqi Exports

The evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz is having a tangible impact on regional crude oil flows. Vortexa data reveals a sharp decline in Iraqi oil exports via the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, averaging just 135,000 barrels per day (bpd) in March, down from 236,000 bpd the previous month. Overall, Iraq’s exports plunged by 3 million bpd in March to 645,000 bpd, despite efforts to accelerate the use of its northern pipeline.

Conversely, Saudi Arabia is actively ramping up its crude exports via alternative pipelines. Exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu surged to 3.3 million bpd in March, marking the highest monthly pace since 2017, significantly up from 800,000 bpd in February. This highlights a strategic move by some producers to mitigate risks associated with the Hormuz situation.

International Community Seeks Solutions

The complex situation has spurred international discussions. Representatives from 35 countries recently held a virtual meeting to explore ways to reopen this crucial energy commodities artery to global maritime traffic. Iran has indicated it is drafting a protocol with Oman for Hormuz Strait traffic, while the UAE has reportedly urged the United Nations to authorize measures, including the potential use of force, to ensure safe passage.

As the Strait of Hormuz continues to be a flashpoint for geopolitical tensions and illicit maritime activities, the coming days are expected to see further negotiations and potential shifts in shipping patterns. The interplay between sanctions, strategic rerouting, and international diplomatic efforts will undoubtedly shape the future of this indispensable global trade artery.

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