The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) has unveiled its Maritime Barometer Report 2025–2026, painting a stark picture of a global shipping industry grappling with escalating **geopolitical instability**, regulatory uncertainty, and economic volatility. Released during the organization’s Shaping the Future of Shipping Summit in Rome, the report underscores that uncertainty is no longer an anomaly but the very backdrop against which crucial decisions are made.

### Geopolitical Instability: The Dominant Risk

For the fourth consecutive year, **geopolitical instability** ranks as the most significant risk to business operations, solidifying its position as a **defining risk multiplier**. This pervasive factor influences everything from market conditions and operational planning to investment decisions and the pace of the **energy transition** within the **maritime sector**. Thomas Kazakos, Secretary General of ICS, highlighted that this instability is now structurally embedded, shaping both short- and long-term operating conditions.

This ‘risk stacking’ effect encompasses a cluster of interrelated threats, including sanctions, wars, tariffs, trade agreements, direct attacks on vessels, and challenges to freedom of navigation. Conflicts in the Middle East and the Black Sea have already reshaped tanker and bulk markets, while USA-China trade tensions accelerate fragmentation and supply chain reconfiguration. The report warns of growing consequences not only for global trade flows but also for seafarers operating in higher-risk environments.

### Top Risks and Industry Confidence:

The ICS Barometer identifies several other critical risks:

* **Cyber Attacks:** Ranking as the second-highest risk, yet confidence in the industry’s ability to manage them remains low, indicating a widening gap between threat scale and response capability.
* **Unilateral and Regional Regulations:** This remains a top-tier structural risk, with weakening confidence suggesting that fragmentation is being actively driven by geopolitical instability rather than gradual evolution within stable multilateral systems.
* **Increasing Administrative Burden:** Ranked fourth, this risk continues to challenge the industry, with low confidence in management.
* **Barriers to Trade:** The fifth-highest risk, steadily increasing in ranking, reflects a broader environment of rising restrictions and policy fragmentation.
* **Availability of Crew and Trained Personnel:** A rising operational risk, ranking sixth. While underlying constraints persist, there’s comparatively higher confidence in managing this through training investment, welfare initiatives, and recruitment diversification.

### Navigating the Energy Transition and Future Fuels

The report sheds light on the industry’s cautious approach to **decarbonization**. Respondents identified Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and biofuels as the most viable fuel options over the next decade, with Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) combined with emissions-abatement technologies also emerging as a leading pathway. This preference for solutions backed by existing supply chains and infrastructure highlights the practical challenges of transitioning to lower-carbon fuels.

Concerns over cost, availability, and scalability remain significant barriers to widespread adoption of alternative fuels. The findings suggest that, without greater regulatory certainty and clearer policy direction, the sector’s **energy transition** is likely to progress at a measured pace.

### A Call for Global Coordination

Shipping executives surveyed for the report emphasized the urgent need for greater international coordination, clearer regulatory frameworks, and stronger financial support mechanisms. These are crucial to help the sector maintain the flow of **global trade** while advancing its transition toward lower-emission energy sources.

Kazakos stressed the importance of stable international frameworks that support investment and provide confidence for long-term decision-making. In an era of increasing fragmentation, maintaining a consistent global approach is not just essential for **shipping** and **supply chains**, but for the wider world economy.

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